Jeremy Corbyn with Shut Down Amazon union leader Chris Smalls

EVERY politico in Islington seems to be ready to predict which way the constituency will go at the July 4 general election.

But with no past data to cater for the unusual situation of Jeremy Corbyn standing as an independent after 40 years as a Labour MP, a statistician has begun raising money for local polling for a more accurate picture.

While national polling has revealed Labour is on course to seal a giant majority in the House of Commons, data journalist Ell Folan – who runs the ‘Stats For Lefties’ X/Twitter page – said they were disappointed nobody had done sampling within the constituency.

New Labour candidate Praful Nargund is looking to unseat Mr Corbyn, the former party leader blocked from standing again.

Data journalist Ell Folan

Mx Folan is looking to raise the £7,000 necessary to poll the constituency and in the first 48 hours since the appeal was launched more than half of that figure has already been donated.

“I think that of all the independent candidates standing in this election, Jeremy Corbyn has by far the highest chance to win,” they said.

“We have never seen a situation where a former party leader has been expelled from his party and is now running against it. He has basically 100 per cent name recognition and that is one thing an independent always lacks. Everyone knows who he is. That’s the thing. That’s why it is so important to understand what’s going on in that seat because we’ve never seen anything like that in our lifetimes.”

While some have replied to the post suggesting that voters and interested parties need only wait three more weeks to find out the winner, Mx Folan believes the poll is “useful independent research”.

The only campaign picture or photograph opportunity of Mr Nargund provided to the Tribune

“Why do it now? Why poll anyone ever? Because it’s interesting, it’s informative, it helps tell us something about a major election campaign,” they said.

The lack of data has made it hard for bookmakers to price up their markets, but have so far made Mr Corbyn their leader. On the ground, there have been contrasting views over who appears to be leading.

Mx Folan’s appeal said some national polling alerts had been unable to translate the national picture onto the local situation

They explained how the polling, which would be conducted by Survation, might work: “Generally, a constituency poll is conducted by telephone,” they told the Tribune, adding that the pollsters “do a random sample of people in the constituency, making sure it matches the overall demographic of the constituency. This gives them a broad assessment of how the constituency would vote if they had polled everyone.”

Mx Folan said donations would be refunded if the £7,000 target was not reached in time for the polling to be relevant.

Not just the Trib

WHILE it may be repetitive to say it each week, the Tribune has to respond to readers fairly asking why they have not seen an interview with Labour candidate Praful Nargund in our pages during the general election campaign.

The simple answer is that countless requests to ask Mr Nargund about his ambitions for the role of MP for Islington North have not been acted on by the candidate or his press team.

The newspaper cannot stop reporting on the campaigns of other candidates because Mr Nargund does not want to be interviewed.

This week it emerged that it was not just the Islington Tribune which had seen requests rebuffed. Guardian writer Zoe Williams posted a screenshot from Labour’s press operation showing another rejected request for an interview, while investigative journalist Michael Crick tweeted: “Has Labour candidate Praful Nargund done any media interviews in this campaign? I heard he’s been rejecting all such requests.”

As we say each week, our pages are open to all the Islington candidates, and once more we extend that invitation to Mr Nargund – who has asked to use our paper to write opinion articles in the past – to meet our reporters and talk about his campaign.

Candidates in Islington

Here is the final list of everybody who will be on the ballot papers in Islington at the July 4 general election.

ISLINGTON NORTH
Vikas Aggarwal (Lib Dems)
Jeremy Corbyn (Independent)
Karen Harries (Conservative)
Paul Josling (Independent)
Praful Nargund (Labour)
Sheridan Kates (Green)
Martyn Nelson (Reform UK)

A candidate who tried to register as ‘Jeremy Bernard Corbyn’ was not allowed as Islington’s elections office said ‘the particulars of the candidate are not as required by law’.

ISLINGTON SOUTH & FINSBURY­
Vikas Aggarwal (Liberal Democrat)
Nasreen Najeeb (Workers Party)
Max Nelson (Reform UK)
Andrew Parry (Independent)
Jake Painter (SDP)
Carne Ross (Green)
Ethan Saunders (Tusc)
Imogen Sinclair (Conservative)
Terry Stacy (Lib Dem)
Emily Thornberry (Labour)
Lesley Woodburn (Party of Women)

Rakhia Ismail (Independent) withdrew.